The Indian connection

The statement by Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal after the end of their three-day strike amply demonstrates the Indian connection in Nepal’s fragile peace process. Dahal, who also served as Nepal’s Prime Minister (PM) immediately before incumbent PM Madhav Kumar Nepal, made the statement undiplomatically and said he would talk directly with India instead of other parties whom he termed as “puppets”. It appears that he was provoked by the statement of Indian Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) Deepak Kapoor who had said that any collective integration of Maoist combatants into the Nepal Army (NA) would politicize it. General Kapoor said he was surprised why the Maoists wanted integration in NA instead of other security forces.

It is a well-known fact that there was a divergence of opinion between South Block on the one hand and the Indian Ministry of Defense on the other regarding the Maoists. During Jana Andolan II and the first term of the UPA government in New Delhi, the need to get support of the left parties, especially CPM, was crucial for the survival of the government. CPM leaders such as Sitaram Yechury and left-leaning intellectuals such as S D Muni had considerable clout in policymaking circles of South Block. On the other hand, such think tanks as United Services Institute (USI) and Institute of Defense Studies were less influential. I had a chance to observe this when I was invited for a presentation in USI and also participated in a seminar organized unofficially by South Block at India International Center in 2004. As the military in India is under civilian control, the view of South Block and bureaucracy prevailed, which led to the Indian side brokering the 12-point understanding between the seven political parties and the Maoists.
Although the Maoists in Nepal have joined mainstream politics unlike their counterparts in India, a Nepali army where ideologically-indoctrinated Maoists are integrated could be a security threat to India.
The Indian government had hoped that either Nepali Congress or CPN (UML) would emerge as the largest party after the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and would form the government. That was not to be. The Maoists emerged as the largest political party in the April, 2008, elections. I had written an article immediately after the elections saying that the biggest loser in the elections was India.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has talked about Maoist insurgency in India as being its single-largest internal security threat. According to an article published in Newsweek (30/11/09), there are 20,000 fighters in 14 out of 28 states in India. They are active in coal-, iron- and bauxite-producing heartland of India extending from the Nepali border to the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhatisgarh and Andhra Pradesh. The Indian Government may send 70,000 troops in “Operation Green Hunt” in the “zone liberated by the Maoists”. Although the Maoists in Nepal have joined mainstream politics unlike their counterparts in India, a Nepali army where ideologically-indoctrinated Maoists are integrated could be a security threat to India. Indian columnists such as General (retired) Ashok Mehta have written that Dahal has received encouragement from China in establishing a “People’s Republic” in Nepal. According to him, India is not in a hurry to see a new constitution in Nepal and India’s one-point agenda “is to keep Nepal’s Maoists in their present avatar out of Singha Durbar” (The Pioneer, 23/12/09). Balbir Punj, journalist and BJP member of Indian parliament, has written that any merger of Maoist combatants with NA would mean Maoist takeover of the Nepali army. He fears that a Maoist Nepal would provide material and ideological support to the Indian Maoists (The Pioneer, 25/12/09).

Both China and India have pledged to support NA in the recent past. The Chinese will provide arms assistance worth Rs 306 million and the Indians will provide concessions on rates to procure non-lethal assistance. It seems both India and China see NA as a source of stability when law and order situation is deteriorating in Nepal. It appears his campaign for “civilian supremacy” has not impressed any of Nepal’s neighbors. If he launches an “indefinite strike” beginning Jan 24 as he has threatened, it is unlikely that any foreign government, including China, will support him.

Some Indian strategic thinkers believe that NA containing ideologically-indoctrinated Maoists will represent a great security threat to India. The entire Gangetic plains of India and its mineral-rich heartland as well as “Chicken’s Neck” just east of the Nepali border might be threatened. It appears that the Indian government is beginning to realize the enormity of blunders it committed in Nepal, which might have threatened its national security. It is unlikely that there would be any integration of Maoist combatants in NA because of our southern neighbor’s security concerns
 
Published on 2010-01-07 01:50:34

Deal for Maoist Combatants Integration / Jan 6, 2010

Top priority for marginalized in integration

KATHMANDU, Jan 7: Ethnic, dalit, Madhesi and women Maoist combatants will get top priority for integration into the national security forces, myrepublica.com has learnt.

The Special Committee on Supervision, Integration and Rehabilitation will take a special political decision in this regard, says a confidential proposed plan of action on integration and rehabilitation. google_protectAndRun("ads_core.google_render_ad", google_handleError, google_render_ad);

“The idea behind giving priority to combatants with marginalized backgrounds is to make the national security forces more inclusive while carrying out the integration,” said a highly-placed source Wednesday on condition of anonymity.

The six-page document floated by the prime minister on Tuesday says that integration will be carried out into the Nepal Army, Armed Police Force, Nepal Police and National Investigation Department (national intelligence). The specific number of combatants to be integrated into a particular national security force will be determined at the highest political level.

“Other security forces - industrial, border, others - will be formed if need be to accommodate combatants aspiring to join the national security forces,” reads the plan of action obtained by myrepublica.com from a Nepali Congress leader.

It further says that all the combatants, 19,602 in total, will be divided into three broad categories -- politics, integration and rehabilitation, as per the combatants´ preferences, at the very outset of the process of management of Maoist army personnel. The combatants will have to choose one of the categories. The plan proposes to complete this process in 60 days, provided the technical team takes 10 minutes to interview one combatant.

Combatants who prefer to join politics will not be allowed to enjoy any rehabilitation package or financial incentive to be offered to those choosing rehabilitation in society.

But combatants who want rehabilitation in society will have to choose rehabilitation packages that include formal education, vocational training, skill-based training, employment (both at home and abroad) and small income generating businesses.

The plan will be under implementation soon after the Special Committee endorses it. Then the Maoists and the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) will have to ensure that all the combatants are present in their respective cantonments.

The plan proposes to complete the whole process of integration and rehabilitation in seven phases in 112 days (by April 30). The process will start with the dissemination of information to combatants, who will be provided counseling about their future. The plan has been designed to match the next tenure of UNMIN, which will be till April 30, said the source.

The plan also says that all weapons of the combatants will be assembled in containers on the 77th day from the plan coming into force, under UNMIN supervision, and will be destroyed the same day by mine action teams of the security forces.

Combatants who prefer to be integrated into national security forces will be screened in four stages and will have to pass each stage of screening. The screening will be carried out to see if they are fit to join the security force of their choice. The security agencies concerned will then conduct training for the combatants and recruit them as per their existing practice and standards.

The overdue process of management of Maoist combatants, which is at the center of the ongoing peace process, will be complete when the combatants selected for integration will be sent for training at the respective national security agency on the 112th day from the start of implementation of the plan.

Meanwhile, the Special Committee on Supervision, Integration and Rehabilitation is meeting Thursday morning to finalize the plan of action on integration and rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants.

Discharge of disqualified begins Thursday

The overdue process of discharge of disqualified Maoist combatants is ultimately beginning from the Sindhuli-based Dudhauli cantonments on Thursday.

The Maoists´ People´s Liberation Army is organizing a special ceremony at the cantonments on Thursday to mark the beginning of the discharge of 4,008 disqualified combatants who comprise minors and late recruits.

The United Nations in Nepal has readied all preparations for the process.

According to Robert Piper, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nepal, all the disqualified have already been provided with civilian dress and new identity cards.

There are 371 disqualified in the Dudhauli cantonments, according to a record of the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN). But government sources said that no more than 240 disqualified will be available for the discharge as the rest have already returned to their homes either long time before or in recent weeks.

"They [the disqualified] will parade in civil dress before they are discharged on Thursday," Piper, who was on the way to Sindhuli on Wednesday, told myrepublica.com over the phone.

As per the process of the discharge, the UN will drop the disqualified to the nearest bus stops. "Each combatant will be provided a transitional allowance amounting Rs 10, 000," said Piper.

As per the plan, the discharged will contact UN career counselors for rehabilitation packages that involve formal education up to Grade XII, vocational training, small business training and health sector packages. At the initial stage, the UN will have 12 such counselors, including 10 to be deployed outside Kathmandu. The UN has established toll free phones so that the discharged can easily contact the counselors.

"The discharge planned for Thursday marks a significant step in the peace process and has also opened the door for rehabilitation and integration of the qualified combatants," said Peace Minister Rakam Chemjong.

Maoist leader Chandra Prakash Khanal is representing the Maoist side in the discharge ceremony while Joint Secretary at Bishnu Nepal represents the government to witness the process. Piper will represent the UN at the program.