The Indian connection

The statement by Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal after the end of their three-day strike amply demonstrates the Indian connection in Nepal’s fragile peace process. Dahal, who also served as Nepal’s Prime Minister (PM) immediately before incumbent PM Madhav Kumar Nepal, made the statement undiplomatically and said he would talk directly with India instead of other parties whom he termed as “puppets”. It appears that he was provoked by the statement of Indian Chief of Army Staff (CoAS) Deepak Kapoor who had said that any collective integration of Maoist combatants into the Nepal Army (NA) would politicize it. General Kapoor said he was surprised why the Maoists wanted integration in NA instead of other security forces.

It is a well-known fact that there was a divergence of opinion between South Block on the one hand and the Indian Ministry of Defense on the other regarding the Maoists. During Jana Andolan II and the first term of the UPA government in New Delhi, the need to get support of the left parties, especially CPM, was crucial for the survival of the government. CPM leaders such as Sitaram Yechury and left-leaning intellectuals such as S D Muni had considerable clout in policymaking circles of South Block. On the other hand, such think tanks as United Services Institute (USI) and Institute of Defense Studies were less influential. I had a chance to observe this when I was invited for a presentation in USI and also participated in a seminar organized unofficially by South Block at India International Center in 2004. As the military in India is under civilian control, the view of South Block and bureaucracy prevailed, which led to the Indian side brokering the 12-point understanding between the seven political parties and the Maoists.
Although the Maoists in Nepal have joined mainstream politics unlike their counterparts in India, a Nepali army where ideologically-indoctrinated Maoists are integrated could be a security threat to India.
The Indian government had hoped that either Nepali Congress or CPN (UML) would emerge as the largest party after the Constituent Assembly (CA) elections and would form the government. That was not to be. The Maoists emerged as the largest political party in the April, 2008, elections. I had written an article immediately after the elections saying that the biggest loser in the elections was India.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has talked about Maoist insurgency in India as being its single-largest internal security threat. According to an article published in Newsweek (30/11/09), there are 20,000 fighters in 14 out of 28 states in India. They are active in coal-, iron- and bauxite-producing heartland of India extending from the Nepali border to the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhatisgarh and Andhra Pradesh. The Indian Government may send 70,000 troops in “Operation Green Hunt” in the “zone liberated by the Maoists”. Although the Maoists in Nepal have joined mainstream politics unlike their counterparts in India, a Nepali army where ideologically-indoctrinated Maoists are integrated could be a security threat to India. Indian columnists such as General (retired) Ashok Mehta have written that Dahal has received encouragement from China in establishing a “People’s Republic” in Nepal. According to him, India is not in a hurry to see a new constitution in Nepal and India’s one-point agenda “is to keep Nepal’s Maoists in their present avatar out of Singha Durbar” (The Pioneer, 23/12/09). Balbir Punj, journalist and BJP member of Indian parliament, has written that any merger of Maoist combatants with NA would mean Maoist takeover of the Nepali army. He fears that a Maoist Nepal would provide material and ideological support to the Indian Maoists (The Pioneer, 25/12/09).

Both China and India have pledged to support NA in the recent past. The Chinese will provide arms assistance worth Rs 306 million and the Indians will provide concessions on rates to procure non-lethal assistance. It seems both India and China see NA as a source of stability when law and order situation is deteriorating in Nepal. It appears his campaign for “civilian supremacy” has not impressed any of Nepal’s neighbors. If he launches an “indefinite strike” beginning Jan 24 as he has threatened, it is unlikely that any foreign government, including China, will support him.

Some Indian strategic thinkers believe that NA containing ideologically-indoctrinated Maoists will represent a great security threat to India. The entire Gangetic plains of India and its mineral-rich heartland as well as “Chicken’s Neck” just east of the Nepali border might be threatened. It appears that the Indian government is beginning to realize the enormity of blunders it committed in Nepal, which might have threatened its national security. It is unlikely that there would be any integration of Maoist combatants in NA because of our southern neighbor’s security concerns
 
Published on 2010-01-07 01:50:34